What Is the Trucking Industry Outlook for 2026?
Published:Sep 26, 2025
5 min. read
Trucking and freight companies that are planning their strategies for the next year and beyond may want to look ahead and see how the industry is expected to change. This makes industry forecasts and outlooks valuable information to have for your freight company. We know that many freight companies are looking at the calendar and asking – what is the trucking industry outlook for 2026? What are the growing trends in the trucking industry? Will the industry see growth or will it remain the same? We hope that this in-depth look at the industry forecast created by TenTrucks will answer these questions and more.
Will the Trucking Industry Grow in 2026?
The trucking industry has been in a downcycle the last few years, driven by high inflation, lower demand from the economy, and lower manufacturing rates. With that being said – the economy has seen 1% – 2% GDP growth in the last year, and 2026 is expected to see similar growth, which is expected to drive moderate growth in the trucking, transport, and freight industry.
When trucking and freight companies look forward, there is always one question that is asked – will the trucking industry grow in 2026? With an in-depth look at the future of the industry and an accurate forecast, freight companies can plan ahead and invest in new technologies – like a Transportation Management System – that can make your business more efficient and more effective.
Here is a better look at how the trucking industry is expected to change and grow in 2026 and beyond:
Expect Lower Fuel Costs
The unpredictable and high price of diesel fuel in recent years has had a significant impact on the trucking industry and that is expected to change in the next year. Projections by the U.S. Energy Information Administration points to diesel fuel prices remaining pretty consistent in the next year and being slightly lower with the average price expected to be $3.47 per gallon in 2026 – compared to $3.66 in 2025.
Increase in E-Commerce and Seasonal Shipping Demand
The COVID-19 pandemic paved the way for e-commerce with an increase in online shopping that changed the retail industry and had a significant impact on the trucking and freight industry. E-commerce sales increased by an estimated 5.3% in 2025 – which has led to e-commerce accounting for 15% – 16% of retail sales. The e-commerce industry’s share of the retail space is expected to continue to increase in 2026.
The increase in e-commerce has led to a significant increase in last-mile delivery and Less-Than-Truckload shipments. With the e-commerce industry expected to continue its upward trajectory, the trucking industry is expected to see an increase in freight with an emphasis on final-mile delivery and shorter hauls for drivers. Trucking companies can also expect to see a continued spike in volume around the holidays in November – December.
Increased Push for Sustainability and Eco-Friendly Operations
The continued push towards more sustainable and eco-friendly freight operations will have an impact on the trucking industry moving forward. Many governments across the globe are working to reduce emissions from commercial trucking and brand-new environmental regulations will have an impact on many freight companies.
California has instated Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) regulations that have driven the production and sale of zero-emission, alternative-fuel commercial trucks and has banned many older diesel trucks in the state. These regulations are expected to change under the new administration – but the push towards zero-emission trucks has increased costs for many companies as they work to be compliant with new environmental regulations.
Changes to the Supply Chain
The global pandemic had a massive impact on the trucking and freight industry with factories shut down, businesses closed, and ports slowed down. A key change to the supply chain is that many businesses now keep more inventory on hand, which means fewer shipments to and from those businesses and an increased emphasis on warehousing and redistribution. In addition to the change in inventory for many businesses, new trade tariffs in the United States have made nearshore production more important to businesses. The increased production of goods in the United States, Mexico, and Canada is expected to lead to an increase in freight traffic in the United States.
Increased Emphasis on Infrastructure
No matter where truck drivers go in the United States they are faced with poor road conditions and traffic congestion. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed in 2021, is expected to have an impact on U.S. infrastructure in the next few years with many of those funds earmarked for road and bridge projects. Improved infrastructure in 2026 and beyond is expected to alleviate congestion on some major highways, which helps freight companies be more efficient and reduce costs.
Will Freight Rates Increase in 2026?
When trucking and freight companies look at projections and forecasts for the industry, many focus on freight and trucking rates. With an expected increase in the economy and an optimistic outlook for the trucking industry, the expectation is a modest increase in trucking rates in 2026 when compared to the last few years. Freight companies can take advantage of this growth with more efficient operations and innovative solutions – like a Transportation Management System that employs Artificial Intelligence (AI) capabilities.
READ MORE: How To Choose the Right Transportation Management System?
What is the trucking industry outlook for 2026? If you have questions about the future of the trucking and freight industry, we hope that this overview of the factors expected to impact the growth of the industry in the next year and beyond has helped answer them.
Contact TenTrucks today for more information on our TenTrucks TMS platform and dispatching services!